40/1 D'ARGENT FOR GRAND NATIONAL GLORY?

WE’VE got the shortlist. Now, it’s a case of picking the winner. Here’s a look at each of the shortlisted horses (in alphabetical order):

U-5111 CLOUDY LANE (8yo 10st 11lb)

The Donald McCain trained Cloudy Lane is the outstanding horse in the race, according to the formbook, and arguably deserves to be favourite.

He’s won three back-to-back races this season including the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on March 1 which former stable mate Amberleigh House won as a prep race before winning the 2004 Grand National.

He travels well in races, jumps well and is quick, but Cloudy Lane is a relatively inexperienced horse whose form can be interpreted as shaky at longer distances.

No recent National winner has gone into the race in such good form, but that can hardly count against him.

It doesn’t appear that Aintree was a specific target at the start of the season but good performances have not only elevated him into the handicap, but also catapulted him to favouritism.

However, there’s a feeling that Cloudy Lane may have peaked too early this season and that his form flatters?

With a potential lack of stamina in mind, the riding tactic of holding him up has worked well for Cloudy Lane, but such a ploy could leave too much to do amid the relentless pace of the Grand National, especially if the going is towards soft.

Eight-year-olds have a fair record in the National (Corbiere, Party Politics, Bindaree), but not a great one, perhaps due to lack of experience. An extra year (from eight to nine) worked wonders for Hedgehunter, also owned by Trevor Hemmings.

He was out on his hooves behind Amberleigh House and Clan Royal in 2004 when falling at the last fence. A year later carrying more weight, and admittedly ridden under different tactics, he won comfortably.

There’s no doubt that Cloudy Lane can win the Grand National, but I suspect another 12 months could make all the difference, unless the handicapper clobbers him.

More experience (including of Aintree’s big fences), extra strength and a specific training plan for the race could see him heading for the winner’s enclosure next spring if things don’t work out this time.

If he chips his way round to finish in the top ten this year, he’ll be near the top of the ante-post list for 2009.

It’s arguably a dangerous strategy to scrub the favourite from the reckonings, but picking winners is all about calculated risk. For now, he’s lacking a bit of experience for me and there's a question mark hanging over his stamina.

P/0P21 COMPLY OR DIE (9yo 10st 9lb)

Comply or Die is one of best handicapped horses in the field and on that basis alone he has a cracking chance.

The nine-year-old by the French and Irish Derby winner Old Vic has been heavily backed by the shrewd ante post punters over the last three weeks and he looks set to start at 12/1 or less.

It’s been a remarkable few months for the lightly-raced horse, quite a renaissance, after almost two years off between December 2005 and October 2007.

His comeback performances were poor, but blinkers appeared to spark him into action by running Cloudy Lane close at Haydock in December.

His last run, the 4m 1f marathon Eider Chase at Newcastle on February 23, was his best yet and proved that despite his pedigree he’s got stamina. Again, headgear appeared to do the trick.

The comfortable win under top weight of 11st 10lbs was his first since 2004 though and the quality of the race has been questioned by form experts. His other successes were against small fields at short prices.

It’s also worth noting that there is not a great history of Eider Chase horses continuing their good form at Aintree.

Applying the statistical trends rigidly he is right up there with D’Argent as an indentikit Grand National winner.

However, I’m concerned that he may struggle to win two 4m+ chases within six weeks of each other. Fresher horses may just pip him on the run-in.

The fact that Comply or Die was being lined up for the Kim Muir Chase at the Cheltenham Festival three weeks ago also indicates that the Grand National is not the focus of the season for trainer, owner or both.

Weight, stamina, age, jumping and speed shouldn't pose problems at Aintree and a repeat of his last two runs would certainly put him in contention. But will he be fresh? Will the form work out?

Trainer David Pipe is hoping to emulate his father’s Grand National success with Miinnehoma in 1994.

2-P014 D’ARGENT (11yo 10st 12lb)

Some trends analysts would argue that grey horses don’t win the Grand National. Well, not since Nicolaus Silver in 1961 anyway.

D’Argent is bred with plenty of stamina. His sire Roselier gave us Grand National winners Bindaree (2002) and Royal Athlete (1995) as well as one of the best Aintree horses never to win a National, Suny Bay (runner-up 1997 & 1998).

Roselier’s breeding successes over marathon distances also include Moorcroft Boy (3rd, 1994), Ebony Jane (4th, 1994), as well as Scottish Grand National winner Baronet (1998) and Welsh National winner Carvill’s Hill (1991). No other horse can boast such impressive offspring at marathon distances.

In the past D'Argent has been regarded as a dodgy jumper at times, which admittedly is not the greatest quality for Aintree’s 30 fences. However, the form book shows he’s only ever fallen once.

Admittedly a blunder cost him the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in 2005 when he unseated regular jockey Robert Thornton with the race at his mercy.

Generally though, D'Argent has a handy habit of getting away with occasional bad jumps.

Trainer Alan King (stable in great form, including landing the Champion Hurdle with Katchit) said he was considering retiring the horse prior to his win at Warwick in January over 3m 5f. D'Argent had other ideas and won the £39K prize with arguably the best performance of his career.

Blinkers seemed to help his jumping that day and they will be fitted again for his tilt at the Grand National. Again, some pundits will drag out facts to suggest horses wearing headgear don’t win the National. Ignore them. Earth Summit won in 1998 and relatively few have since tried. L'Escargot also won wearing blinkers in 1975.

Prior to the improved jumping performances, King was twice quoted as saying D’Argent is not suitable for Aintree. The Indian summer thanks to blinkers has changed his mind and he now believes D'Argent could bring the stable its first Grand National win.

It is difficult to fault D’Argent’s credentials. Even the fact he’s raced four times this season, including a win, mirrors the general profiles of past recent winners. His last outing was at Haydock in the Red Vodka Grand National trial when he came a creditable fourth, providing a great workout if nothing else.

He’s at the optimum age as well and his record of 18 chase runs (five wins and two placings) in just over four years shows sufficient experience in good quality races without fears of him being battle weary.

Importantly, he’s also shown better form in big, bustling fields including winning a three-way finish at Cheltenham.

D’Argent’s five chase wins have come on left-hand courses, like Aintree, each under the guidance of Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton.

After the euphoria of the Cheltenham Festival, D’Argent could make it a memorable spring double for King and Thornton. Can you see the headlines? Choc’s Away! King of Aintree! Grey Day!

Not only does D’Argent offer arguably the best trends profile for 2008, he also offers potentially great value at 40/1 (available March 28). My idea of a Grand National winner.

612-80 McKELVEY (9yo 11st 0lb)

McKelvey finished like the proverbial steam train in last year’s Grand National. A further 100 yards, possibly only 50 yards, and the £399K prize was his.

Many punters will have marked him down as one for 2008 and will have since been watching out for him.

Despite 11 stone to carry (ten pounds more than in 2007), he still looked a good thing when the weights were published six weeks ago.

However, he’s had an unconventional preparation by trainer Peter Bowen, with only two equally unimpressive hurdle races so far this season. Bowen says the Grand National was always the sole target for 2008, but with so little race experience since last year, it is hard to see McKelvey winning.

Some horses produce their best form at Aintree and he may have been packing in a lot of fitness training at home.

104329 NAUNTON BROOK (9yo 10st 10lb)

Naunton Brook's credentials are far from spectacular but he fits the bill on several fronts: ideal weight, jumping, Aintree experience, four wins at 3miles+, won a 26K race and he's got the only two-time Grand National winning trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (Earth Summit and Bindaree).

He's twice run very well in the Welsh National, a great trial race for Aintree (e.g. Silver Birch), coming 4th and 5th ahead of some decent horses.

He loves to bowl along in front but faded quickly after one circuit of the National last year. Jumped really well though and I expect him to be the trailblazer again this year.

I'll offer evens money on him leading at Becher's first time round?

His form is significantly improved this season, albeit not winning form and I reckon he could be in the frame at big odds with some luck in running.

Worth a place-only bet, if you can get one. He'll go off at 50/1, perhaps as high as 100/1 with some bookies. You may get considerably bigger prices with Betfair or the Tote.

080403 POINT BARROW (10yo 10st 12lb)

After 24 years of frustration following L’Escargot’s win in 1975, the Irish have been spoilt with success at Aintree in recent years.

Irish Grand National winners, in particular, have followed up their triumphs at Fairyhouse with victories at Aintree. Can Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde be followed by Point Barrow, the 2006 Irish National winner?

Point Barrow was 8/1 co-favourite last year when stumbling on landing in the traditional cavalry charge at the first fence. The usually reliable jumper can be forgiven his exhuberance.

County Carlow trainer Pat Hughes has again swerved the Irish National this year, which shows his commitment to winning at Aintree.

Point Barrow’s form throughout his 23 races over fences (including five wins) has been inconsistent, but there is no doubting he can deliver the goods on his day as he showed at Fairyhouse and also by winning the Pierse Chase at Leopardstown last February against 18 other runners.

This season’s form has been disappointing so far, but the Irish have a canny knack of keeping their best Grand National horses out of the spotlight in the run-up to Aintree with quiet prep races.

On the plus side, Point Barrow’s preparation is as encouraging as Papillon’s in 2000.

Point Barrow is not the speediest horse but with a patient ride I can see him battling out a finish to give the Irish another taste of Grand National glory.

Postscript (March 30): Royal Auclair, one of the original seven shortlisted horses, is a non-runner.

Touchline Dad’s verdict:

1, D’ARGENT

2, POINT BARROW

3, COMPLY OR DIE

Let me know YOUR selections for the Grand National by posting a comment. It's OK you can use a pseudonym. No email needed or registration required. Look forward to reading your comments.

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