STATISTICS can help reduce the risk. They cannot eliminate it.
The shortlists for the 2008 race currently doing the rounds feature mostly the same names although there are a few variations depending on how much of a ‘trends purist’ the compiler is.
The lists in 2007 consistently contained the name of the eventual winner, 33/1 outsider Silver Birch. Only doubts about whether the horse had fully recovered from injury and settled with his new trainer in Ireland put off serious punters.
In fact, most years the winner will have up to eight key traits.
Criteria for the identikit Grand National winner:
1, Aged 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12, preferably 9 to 11
2, Official handicap rating of 136 to144, which at the moment equates to carrying a weight between 10st 8lb and 11st
3, Success in bustling races of 12 or more runners
4, A winner over a minimum 3 miles but preferably solid form in class 1 or 2 races at over 3miles
5, Three or more chase wins
6, A winner of a chase worth a minimum £17k
7, At least four prep races this season but preferably no more than six
8, No more than three career falls over fences
There are plenty of versions of the statistical trends theory, but all of them are along these lines.
By using these guidelines (and allowing a small degree of flexibility), the list of strong contenders is soon whittled down to single figures.
So, which horses have the all-important winning traits in 2008?
Click here for 2008 John Smith’s Grand National Tips: Part 5
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They had a famous FA Cup run in the early 1990s, eventually being knocked out by Crewe 3-1 in the 3rd round. Roly Howard was manager for a record 33 years (1972-2005), although he will always be remembered by some fans as Kenny Dalglish's window cleaner. TV presenter Ray Stubbs once asked: "How's business, Roly?" to which Roly replied "Oh you know - ups and downs."






Former players include Michael Ball (Everton and Rangers) and Stephen Wright (Liverpool and Sunderland). The club motto is 'To Enjoy, Not Destroy.'






